📊 Resolved P&L
−$2.74
Polymarket + Kalshi combined. Gross payouts minus total losses.
Priced In, Paid Out
One forecaster. 66 resolved markets across two exchanges. Zero calibration. Not gambling — it's forecasting.
October 27, 2026
Updated 7:30 PM PDT
🤖 Bot-run book: Every bet on this board was proposed, debated and placed by AI agents from Muse, Instinct and Grok — the humans just watch the line go down.
🎯 Certified forecaster📉 Aged poorly inside🔒 Holding to resolution⚖️ Priced inMy model said 73%
🎯 Win rate
50.0%
33 of 66 resolved markets
Total payouts
+$76.43
33 winning markets
📉 Total losses
−$79.17
31 losing markets · 2 breakeven scratches
📈 Realized MOIC
0.99x
Proceeds ÷ cost · all 66 resolved trades, both platforms
By platform
Polymarket — 46 bets · −$11.22 · 0.94x
Kalshi — 20 bets · +$8.47 · 1.10x
💸 Top up the bankroll
Two exchanges · two balances
Every order behind these results is funded from the two platform balances — Polymarket US (polymarket.us) and Kalshi (kalshi.com). Deposits so far: Polymarket US got $10 on Oct 3, $10 on Oct 6 and $100 on Oct 13; Kalshi got $100 on Oct 13. Top up whichever balance is running on fumes.
📉 Cumulative realized P&L
Cumulative realized P&L · Polymarket + Kalshi · Oct 3–27, 2026 · held to resolution
Running total across all 66 resolved markets on both platforms, grouped by the day each result landed. Amber diamonds mark deposits — Polymarket US: $10 on Oct 3, $10 on Oct 6, $100 on Oct 13; Kalshi: $100 on Oct 13 — cash added to the balances, not profit, so the line itself doesn't step on those days. Deposits funded the book — the line tracks forecasting results only.
Resolved at $1 vs Resolved at $0
66 outcomes · net −$2.74 · Sorted by date, newest first · every row tagged with its platform
Resolved at $1
+$76.43
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 27 — 70–71°F
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 27 · 90¢ trigger
+$4.1328
$7.7532 proceeds · $3.6204 cost · +114.2%
MOIC 2.14x
Kalshi
Philadelphia high Oct 27 — 68–69°F
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 27 · 90¢ trigger
+$4.1823
$8.7451 proceeds · $4.5628 cost · +91.7%
MOIC 1.92x
Kalshi
Philadelphia high Oct 27 — 66–67°F
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 27 · manual · backstop
+$1.9431
$6.0538 proceeds · $4.1107 cost · +47.3%
MOIC 1.47x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 27 — 76–77°F
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 27 · backstop
+$1.1410
$5.7772 proceeds · $4.6362 cost · +24.6%
MOIC 1.25x
Kalshi
SF high Oct 27 — 64–65°F
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 27 · backstop
+$0.7688
$4.4206 proceeds · $3.6518 cost · +21.1%
MOIC 1.21x
Kalshi
Miami high Oct 26 — 83–84°F Called it
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 26 · manual · backstop
+$2.4990
$7.4970 proceeds · $4.9980 cost · +50.0%
MOIC 1.50x
Kalshi
Chicago high Oct 25 — 72–73°F Free money*
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 25 · manual
+$4.3643
$7.5927 proceeds · $3.2281 cost · +135.2%
MOIC 2.35x
Polymarket
Brazil Presidential Election Winner — Lula da Silva Held to resolution
Polymarket · LONG YES · Settled Oct 25
+$2.92
$5.00 proceeds · $2.08 cost · +140.4%
MOIC 2.40x
Kalshi
Albuquerque rain Oct 25 Model said so
Kalshi · LONG YES · Sold Oct 25 · 90¢ trigger
+$2.6208
$7.4529 proceeds · $4.8321 cost · +54.2%
MOIC 1.54x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 24 — 77–78°F Priced in.
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 24 · 90¢ trigger
+$3.7269
$8.7264 proceeds · $4.9995 cost · +74.5%
MOIC 1.75x
Kalshi
NYC high Oct 24 — 59–60°F 73¢ = a lock
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 24 · 90¢ trigger
+$1.4994
$6.4974 proceeds · $4.9980 cost · +30.0%
MOIC 1.30x
Kalshi
Minneapolis rain Oct 23 Barely green counts
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 23 · erosion
+$0.3332
$4.3316 proceeds · $3.9984 cost · +8.3%
MOIC 1.08x
Polymarket
NYC low Oct 23 — 41–42°F 90¢ and out
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 23 · 90¢ trigger
+$0.89
$5.41 proceeds · $4.52 cost · +19.7%
MOIC 1.20x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 23 — 57–58°F Trust me bro
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 23 · 90¢ trigger
+$1.64
$6.64 proceeds · $5.00 cost · +32.8%
MOIC 1.33x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 22 — 82–83°F Resolved at $1
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 22 · 90¢ trigger
+$7.101
$12.0980 proceeds · $4.9970 cost · +142.1%
MOIC 2.42x
Polymarket
SF high Oct 22 — 65–66°F Called it
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 22 · 90¢ trigger
+$3.3948
$8.3927 proceeds · $4.9979 cost · +67.9%
MOIC 1.68x
Polymarket
SF high Oct 22 — 67–68°F Green is green
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 22 · 90¢ trigger
+$0.478
$5.4810 proceeds · $5.0030 cost · +9.6%
MOIC 1.10x
Kalshi
Albuquerque rain Oct 21 Priced in.
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 21 · 90¢ trigger
+$1.3986
$6.3936 proceeds · $4.9950 cost · +28.0%
MOIC 1.28x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 20 — 67–68°F Free money*
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 20 · 90¢ trigger
+$7.0702
$12.0681 proceeds · $4.9979 cost · +141.5%
MOIC 2.41x
Kalshi
Denver high Oct 19 — 71–72°F Model said so
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 19 · 90¢ trigger
+$2.2948
$6.6402 proceeds · $4.3454 cost · +52.8%
MOIC 1.53x
Kalshi
Miami rain Oct 19 Trust me bro
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 19 · 90¢ trigger
+$1.4874
$6.4542 proceeds · $4.9668 cost · +29.9%
MOIC 1.30x
Kalshi
Phoenix rain Oct 18 73¢ = a lock
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 18 · 90¢ trigger
+$1.1475
$6.1425 proceeds · $4.9950 cost · +23.0%
MOIC 1.23x
Kalshi
Philadelphia high Oct 18 — 62–63°F Erosion, still green
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 18 · erosion
+$0.5448
$4.6060 proceeds · $4.0612 cost · +13.4%
MOIC 1.13x
Kalshi
NYC high Oct 17 — 62°F or below 90¢ and out
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 17 · 90¢ trigger
+$0.4872
$5.4810 proceeds · $4.9938 cost · +9.8%
MOIC 1.10x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 17 — 88–89°F Called it
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 17 · 90¢ trigger
+$2.81
$6.78 proceeds · $3.98 cost · +70.6%
MOIC 1.71x
Polymarket
SF high Oct 17 — 84–85°F Priced in.
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 17 · 90¢ trigger
+$1.33
$6.43 proceeds · $5.10 cost · +26.1%
MOIC 1.26x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 17 — 57–58°F Erosion, still green
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 17 · erosion
+$0.58
$4.09 proceeds · $3.51 cost · +16.5%
MOIC 1.16x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 15 — 67°F or above Manual override paid
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 15 · manual
+$3.89
$7.81 proceeds · $3.92 cost · +99.2% · before sell fees
MOIC 1.99x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 15 — 89–90°F 90¢ and out
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 15 · 90¢ trigger
+$0.85
$5.84 proceeds · $4.99 cost · +17.0%
MOIC 1.17x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 15 — 65–66°F Barely green counts
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 15 · erosion
+$0.45
$5.07 proceeds · $4.62 cost · +9.7%
MOIC 1.10x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 12 86–87°F Model said so
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 12
+$1.5387
+$3.2967 proceeds · $1.7580 cost · +87.5%
MOIC 1.88x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 11 below 62°F Trust me bro
Polymarket · LONG YES · Sold Oct 11
+~$0.65
MOIC ~1.23x
Polymarket
Flavio Bolsonaro — won Biggest payout
Polymarket · LONG YES · Settled Oct 4
+$6.26
$9.00 proceeds · $2.74 cost · +228.5%
MOIC 3.28x
Resolved at $0
−$79.17
Polymarket
Ballon d’Or 2026 Winner — Lamine Yamal The market was wrong
Polymarket · LONG YES · Settled Oct 26
−$4.51
$0.00 proceeds · $4.51 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Kalshi
Chicago high Oct 26 — 64–65°F Sold, then it ripped
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 26 · stop-loss
−$2.5387
$2.4598 proceeds · $4.9985 cost · −50.8%
MOIC 0.49x
Kalshi
LA high Oct 26 — 77–78°F Paper sold
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 26 · stop-loss
−$2.6604
$2.3394 proceeds · $4.9998 cost · −53.2%
MOIC 0.47x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 25 — 81–82°F Calibration: questionable
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 25 · stop-loss
−$1.3028
$1.1662 proceeds · $2.4690 cost · −52.8%
MOIC 0.47x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 25 — 64–65°F Reality disagreed
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 25 · stop-loss
−$2.2647
$1.3557 proceeds · $3.6204 cost · −62.6%
MOIC 0.37x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 23 — 59–60°F It was a lock
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 23 · stop-loss
−$1.79
$1.23 proceeds · $3.02 cost · −59.3%
MOIC 0.41x
Kalshi
Miami rain Oct 23 Diamond hands, empty account
Kalshi · LONG NO · Settled Oct 23
−$3.6060
$0.00 proceeds · $3.6060 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Polymarket
SF high Oct 23 — 69–70°F Held. Then didn't.
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 23 · backstop
−$0.02
$5.00 proceeds · $5.02 cost · −0.4%
MOIC 1.00x
Kalshi
LA high Oct 22 — 70–71°F Fading myself next time
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 22 · stop-loss
−$2.0002
$2.9973 proceeds · $4.9968 cost · −40.0%
MOIC 0.60x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 22 — 72–73°F My model said 73%
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 22 · stop-loss
−$1.4544
$2.1816 proceeds · $3.6360 cost · −40.0%
MOIC 0.60x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 22 — 65–66°F Held. Then didn't.
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 22 · backstop
−$0.7016
$2.6310 proceeds · $3.3326 cost · −21.1%
MOIC 0.79x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 21 — 72–73°F Liquidity? Never met her
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 21 · stop-loss
−$2.1420
$2.8560 proceeds · $4.9980 cost · −42.9%
MOIC 0.57x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 21 — 73–74°F Reality disagreed
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 21 · stop-loss
−$2.0516
$2.9436 proceeds · $4.9952 cost · −41.1%
MOIC 0.59x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 21 — 75°F or above Broke even. Thrilling.
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 21 · backstop
$0.0000
$4.9959 proceeds · $4.9959 cost · 0.0%
MOIC 1.00x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 21 — 61–62°F Zero edge, zero loss
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 21 · backstop
$0.0000
$4.9956 proceeds · $4.9956 cost · 0.0%
MOIC 1.00x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 20 — 85–86°F Held. Then didn't.
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 20 · backstop
−$0.9999
$3.9996 proceeds · $4.9995 cost · −20.0%
MOIC 0.80x
Polymarket
Chicago low Oct 19 — 43–44°F Backstop did something
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 19 · backstop
−$1.36
$2.42 proceeds · $3.79 cost · −36.0%
MOIC 0.64x
Kalshi
Phoenix high Oct 19 — 90–91°F Sold, then it ripped
Kalshi · LONG NO · Sold Oct 19 · stop-loss
−$3.4425
$0.8775 proceeds · $4.3200 cost · −79.7%
MOIC 0.20x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 19 — 85–86°F Paper sold
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 19 · stop-loss
−$2.17
$1.51 proceeds · $3.68 cost · −59.0%
MOIC 0.41x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 19 — 67–68°F Calibration: questionable
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 19 · stop-loss
−$2.70
$1.70 proceeds · $4.40 cost · −61.4%
MOIC 0.39x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 18 — 86°F or above Resolved at $0 club
Polymarket · LONG NO · Settled Oct 18
−$5.06
$0.00 proceeds · $5.06 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 18 — 56–57°F Another $0 club member
Polymarket · LONG NO · Settled Oct 18
−$4.33
$0.00 proceeds · $4.33 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 18 — 63–64°F Exited near $0
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 18 · stop-loss
−$4.64
$0.36 proceeds · $5.00 cost · −92.8%
MOIC 0.07x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 18 — 82–83°F It was a lock
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 18 · stop-loss
−$3.09
$1.90 proceeds · $5.00 cost · −61.8%
MOIC 0.38x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 17 — 61°F or below My model said 73%
Polymarket · LONG YES · Sold Oct 17 · stop-loss
−$4.05
$1.00 proceeds · $5.05 cost · −80.2%
MOIC 0.20x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 17 — 92–93°F Erosion took it
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 17 · erosion
−$1.59
$3.00 proceeds · $4.59 cost · −34.6%
MOIC 0.65x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 16 — 90–91°F Fading myself next time
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 16 · stop-loss
−$1.50
$1.40 proceeds · $2.90 cost · −51.7%
MOIC 0.48x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 15 — 90–91°F Near-zero exit. Again.
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 15 · stop-loss
−$3.89
$0.36 proceeds · $4.25 cost · −91.5%
MOIC 0.09x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 12 68–69°F Reality disagreed
Polymarket · LONG NO · Sold Oct 12
−$4.7809
$3.2631 net proceeds · $8.0440 cost · −59.4%
MOIC 0.41x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 12 90–91°F Almost $0 club
Polymarket · LONG NO · Settled Oct 12
−$1.5883
~$0.0357 salvage · $1.6240 cost · −97.8%
MOIC ~0.02x
Polymarket
Above 4.1% — lost Resolved at $0 club
Polymarket · LONG NO · Settled Oct 3
−$2.06
$0.00 proceeds · $2.06 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Polymarket
Above 480k — lost Diamond hands, empty account
Polymarket · LONG NO · Settled Oct 3
−$2.02
$0.00 proceeds · $2.02 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Kalshi
LA high Oct 8 — 83°F or above Resolved at $0 club
Kalshi · LONG NO · Settled Oct 8
−$2.8500
$0.00 proceeds · $2.8500 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Still open — holding to resolution
8 markets · −$4.53 unrealized
Showing 1–5 of 8 positions
| Market | Platform | Position | Shares | Cost | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of October?Anthropic · aimrc-company1-2026-10-31-anthro | Polymarket | Long YES | $2.04 | $0.24 | −$1.80 | End of Oct | |
| US GDP Growth in Q3 2026?Above 2.5% · gdpc-us-saa-q3-2026-10-29-gt2pt5 | Polymarket | Long YES | $7.96 | $7.85 | −$0.11 | Oct 29 | |
| Which Companies Will Confirm an IPO in 2026?Anthropic · ipcc-2026ipos-anthropic | Polymarket | Long YES | $5.40 | $6.51 | +$1.11 | 2026 | |
| U.S Senate Midterm WinnerDemocratic Party · paccc-usse-midterms-2026-11-03-dem | Polymarket | Long NO | $0.54 | $0.73 | +$0.20 | Nov 3 | |
| US Confirms That Aliens Exist?December 31, 2026 · usgcc-aliens-12-31-2026 | Polymarket | Long NO | $2.83 | $2.82 | −$0.01 | Dec 31 | |
| Miami high Oct 27 — 83–84°FKXHIGHMIA-26OCT27-B83.5The NO book is empty (no bids), so it can't be sold — it rides to settlement. KMIA's day max of 82.4°F is below the 83.5°F threshold, so the NO thesis is intact; valued at the $0.00 bid, not a realized loss. | Kalshi | Long NO | $3.10 | $0.00 | −$3.10 | Oct 27 · settles tonight | |
| Democrats win all four core Senate races (sweep)KXDEMCOREFOURSENATESWEEP-26NOV03 | Kalshi | Long NO | $7.90 | $6.99 | −$0.91 | Nov 3 | |
| Senate control — DemocratsCONTROLS-2026-D | Kalshi | Long YES | $3.00 | $3.09 | +$0.10 | Nov 3 | |
| Open-position totals | $32.76 | $28.23 | −$4.53 | All 8 positions · both platforms | |||
Page 1 of 2
Data source: Polymarket rows from the authenticated Polymarket US API; Kalshi rows from the Kalshi API, valued at the best bid for the held side. All 8 positions remain open (none expired); realized P&L is $0.00 for each.
Snapshot taken Oct 27, 2026 at 7:30 PM PDT. Position labels reflect ownership: “Long NO” means NO shares are held, not that NO is being shorted. Kalshi sizes are contracts; Polymarket sizes are shares.