📊 Resolved P&L
−$14.91
Polymarket + Kalshi combined. Gross payouts minus total losses.
Priced In, Paid Out
One forecaster. 61 resolved markets across two exchanges. Zero calibration. Not gambling — it's forecasting.
October 27, 2026
Updated 3:35 PM PDT
🤖 Bot-run book: Every bet on this board was proposed, debated and placed by AI agents from Muse, Instinct and Grok — the humans just watch the line go down.
🎯 Certified forecaster📉 Aged poorly inside🔒 Holding to resolution⚖️ Priced inMy model said 73%
🎯 Win rate
45.9%
28 of 61 resolved markets
Total payouts
+$64.26
28 winning markets
📉 Total losses
−$79.17
31 losing markets · 2 breakeven scratches
📈 Realized MOIC
0.95x
Proceeds ÷ cost · all 61 resolved trades, both platforms
By platform
Polymarket — 44 bets · −$16.49 · 0.91x
Kalshi — 17 bets · +$1.58 · 1.02x
💸 Top up the bankroll
Two exchanges · two balances
Every order behind these results is funded from the two platform balances — Polymarket US (polymarket.us) and Kalshi (kalshi.com). Deposits so far: Polymarket US got $10 on Oct 3, $10 on Oct 6 and $100 on Oct 13; Kalshi got $100 on Oct 13. Top up whichever balance is running on fumes.
📉 Cumulative realized P&L
Cumulative realized P&L · Polymarket + Kalshi · Oct 3–26, 2026 · held to resolution
Running total across all 61 resolved markets on both platforms, grouped by the day each result landed. Amber diamonds mark deposits — Polymarket US: $10 on Oct 3, $10 on Oct 6, $100 on Oct 13; Kalshi: $100 on Oct 13 — cash added to the balances, not profit, so the line itself doesn't step on those days. Deposits funded the book — the line tracks forecasting results only.
Resolved at $1 vs Resolved at $0
61 outcomes · net −$14.91 · Sorted by date, newest first · every row tagged with its platform
Resolved at $1
+$64.26
Kalshi
Miami high Oct 26 — 83–84°F
LONG NO · sold Oct 26 — 50% at Biao’s direction at the +75% ask-first profit target (@ 65¢), remainder profit-erosion backstop (@ 40¢) · 14.28 contracts @ 35¢ · buy order 01a17616-89d8-7c0f-95f9-145385a2a85e · sell orders 01a17886-5158-7f01-997a-97fb05d76728, 01a178ad-9420-7e93-b2bb-1eec48c95a42
+$2.4990
$7.4970 proceeds · $4.9980 cost · +50.0%
MOIC 1.50x
Kalshi
Chicago high Oct 25 — 72–73°F
LONG NO · sold Oct 25 at Biao’s direction (ask-first profit target) · 8.92 contracts @ ~36.2¢ avg fill · buy order 01a17389-bca8-734c-99b5-7a447838db74 · sell order 01a1746c-2598-79bb-a58f-dee3d86df7d1
+$4.3643
$7.5927 proceeds · $3.2281 cost · +135.2%
MOIC 2.35x
Polymarket
Brazil Presidential Election Winner — Lula da Silva
LONG YES · settled Oct 25 at $1.00 after Lula won the runoff (TSE 51.76% to 48.24%) · 5 shares
+$2.92
$5.00 proceeds · $2.08 cost · +140.4%
MOIC 2.40x
Kalshi
Albuquerque rain Oct 25
LONG YES · sold Oct 25 at 91¢ — 90¢ high-confidence trigger, fact-lock check NOT LOCKED · 8.19 contracts @ 59¢ · buy order 01a17388-a368-7476-bb95-7036d66c8126 · sell order 01a17550-d490-78a6-9f59-06a3f0d3fc8d
+$2.6208
$7.4529 proceeds · $4.8321 cost · +54.2%
MOIC 1.54x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 24 — 77–78°F
LONG NO · Tier-2 consensus trial bet #3 · closed by sale Oct 24 at 96¢ — high-confidence 90¢ trigger, fact-lock check NOT LOCKED · 9.09 shares @ 55¢ avg fill · buy order D9HXZZTG11KJ · sell order DA1JK38G31KJ
+$3.7269
$8.7264 proceeds · $4.9995 cost · +74.5%
MOIC 1.75x
Kalshi
NYC high Oct 24 — 59–60°F
LONG NO · sold Oct 24 at 91¢ — 90¢ high-confidence trigger, fact-lock check NOT LOCKED · 7.14 contracts @ 70¢ · buy order 01a16ba5-7540-7f5c-96b0-f88a01a310dd · sell order 01a16e7c-1cb0-7ddf-b6e3-39f96caad8f6
+$1.4994
$6.4974 proceeds · $4.9980 cost · +30.0%
MOIC 1.30x
Kalshi
Minneapolis rain Oct 23
LONG NO · sold Oct 23 at 52¢ — profit-erosion (after repeated stop-loss thesis-check holds, intact) · 8.33 contracts @ 48¢ · buy fill not recorded in the fills ledger; cost corroborated by the API record · sell order 01a16a36-be58-76f9-862c-109471eaad5f
+$0.3332
$4.3316 proceeds · $3.9984 cost · +8.3%
MOIC 1.08x
Polymarket
NYC low Oct 23 — 41–42°F
LONG NO · closed by sale Oct 23 — high-confidence 90¢ trigger, sold at the verified 91¢ bid
+$0.89
$5.41 proceeds · $4.52 cost · +19.7%
MOIC 1.20x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 23 — 57–58°F
LONG NO · closed by sale Oct 23 — high-confidence 90¢ trigger
+$1.64
$6.64 proceeds · $5.00 cost · +32.8%
MOIC 1.33x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 22 — 82–83°F Resolved at $1
LONG NO · closed by sale at 92¢ — 90¢ high-confidence trigger, fact-lock check NOT LOCKED · 13.15 shares @ 38¢ · sell order D8NMJJYG11KJ
+$7.101
$12.0980 proceeds · $4.9970 cost · +142.1%
MOIC 2.42x
Polymarket
SF high Oct 22 — 65–66°F
LONG NO · Tier-2 consensus trial bet #1 · closed by sale at 89¢ — 90¢ high-confidence trigger, fact-lock check NOT LOCKED · 9.43 shares @ 53¢ · sell order D8RDA7PG11N6
+$3.3948
$8.3927 proceeds · $4.9979 cost · +67.9%
MOIC 1.68x
Polymarket
SF high Oct 22 — 67–68°F
LONG NO · closed by sale at 90¢ — 90¢ high-confidence trigger, fact-lock check NOT LOCKED · 6.09 shares @ 82.1¢ avg fill · sell order D8KF1DFG11MV
+$0.478
$5.4810 proceeds · $5.0030 cost · +9.6%
MOIC 1.10x
Kalshi
Albuquerque rain Oct 21
LONG NO · sold Oct 21 at 96¢ — 90¢ high-confidence trigger, fact-lock check NOT LOCKED · 6.66 contracts @ 75¢ · buy order 01a15ecc-f5c8-7e8b-ab11-4565f2496054 · sell order 01a160c1-e410-76b1-bc6d-1629486c32a7
+$1.3986
$6.3936 proceeds · $4.9950 cost · +28.0%
MOIC 1.28x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 20 — 67–68°F
LONG NO · closed by sale at 99¢ — 90¢ high-confidence trigger after the fact-lock check failed · 12.19 shares · buy order D7A77JNG10JH · sell order D7EP7VSG10JN
+$7.0702
$12.0681 proceeds · $4.9979 cost · +141.5%
MOIC 2.41x
Kalshi
Denver high Oct 19 — 71–72°F
LONG NO · sold Oct 19 at 93¢ — 90¢ high-confidence trigger · 7.14 contracts @ ~60.9¢ avg fill · buy order 01a154c3-74d0-7de6-a210-bf8ed66df657 · sell order 01a155fc-fe70-75e2-8ebc-c6eecab31ba1
+$2.2948
$6.6402 proceeds · $4.3454 cost · +52.8%
MOIC 1.53x
Kalshi
Miami rain Oct 19
LONG NO · sold Oct 19 at 93¢ — 90¢ high-confidence trigger · 6.94 contracts @ ~71.6¢ avg fill · buy order 01a15484-0688-7bba-9158-68dd6d9917a5 · sell order 01a15707-84e8-7ba7-9a1d-e5dc69e0f1bf
+$1.4874
$6.4542 proceeds · $4.9668 cost · +29.9%
MOIC 1.30x
Kalshi
Phoenix rain Oct 18
LONG NO · sold Oct 18 at 91¢ — 90¢ high-confidence trigger · 6.75 contracts @ 74¢ · buy order 01a14f52-d130-708e-8840-1b981c7ef986 · sell order 01a1509a-fce8-7c78-9701-238aead9bad1
+$1.1475
$6.1425 proceeds · $4.9950 cost · +23.0%
MOIC 1.23x
Kalshi
Philadelphia high Oct 18 — 62–63°F
LONG NO · sold Oct 18 — profit-erosion, in three fills · 7.81 contracts @ 52¢ · buy order 01a14ccf-cfd0-763c-9a60-5df63fa52432 · sell orders 01a15073-cda8-7b30-9687-e3422aef842f, 01a15074-7988-7531-a574-9ddc9ce67e0c, 01a15075-d148-78c8-a105-46737962999b
+$0.5448
$4.6060 proceeds · $4.0612 cost · +13.4%
MOIC 1.13x
Kalshi
NYC high Oct 17 — 62°F or below
LONG NO · sold Oct 17 at 90¢ — 90¢ high-confidence trigger · 6.09 contracts @ 82¢ · buy order 01a14a2e-49f0-7fe3-b12b-bc990307e54b · sell order 01a14b27-4820-723e-b607-3efbaaad94b6
+$0.4872
$5.4810 proceeds · $4.9938 cost · +9.8%
MOIC 1.10x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 17 — 88–89°F
LONG NO · sold Oct 17 at 95¢ high-confidence trigger · 7.14 shares · order D5E85E5010JV
+$2.81
$6.78 proceeds · $3.98 cost · +70.6%
MOIC 1.71x
Polymarket
SF high Oct 17 — 84–85°F
LONG NO · sold Oct 17 at 90¢ high-confidence trigger · 7.14 shares · order D5KCNEZ010JC
+$1.33
$6.43 proceeds · $5.10 cost · +26.1%
MOIC 1.26x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 17 — 57–58°F
LONG NO · profit-erosion sale Oct 17 at 45¢ · 9.09 shares · order D5D3RH4G10JE
+$0.58
$4.09 proceeds · $3.51 cost · +16.5%
MOIC 1.16x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 15 — 67°F or above
LONG NO · bought Oct 15, 7:15 AM · filled at ~37¢ avg (48¢ limit) · 10.41 shares · order D430PP6G0ZZ0 · sold Oct 15, 8:36 AM at 75¢ limit · order D445WHF00ZS5 (manual)
+$3.89
$7.81 proceeds · $3.92 cost · +99.2% · before sell fees
MOIC 1.99x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 15 — 89–90°F
LONG NO · sold Oct 15 at 90¢ high-confidence trigger · 6.49 shares · order D45RDHHG0ZT9
+$0.85
$5.84 proceeds · $4.99 cost · +17.0%
MOIC 1.17x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 15 — 65–66°F
LONG NO · profit-erosion sale Oct 15 at 71¢ · 7.14 shares · order D48ZK4GG0ZRX
+$0.45
$5.07 proceeds · $4.62 cost · +9.7%
MOIC 1.10x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 12 86–87°F
LONG NO · auto-sold Oct 12, 3:03 PM PDT at 99¢ · 3.33 shares · order D2BP27EXWZ7Z filled
+$1.5387
+$3.2967 proceeds · $1.7580 cost · +87.5%
MOIC 1.88x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 11 below 62°F
LONG YES · sold Oct 11 morning at ~69–70¢ · 5 shares · proceeds ~$3.45 vs cost ~$2.80
+~$0.65
MOIC ~1.23x
Polymarket
Flavio Bolsonaro — won Biggest payout
LONG YES · Brazil Presidential Election First Round · 9 shares filled at 29¢
+$6.26
$9.00 proceeds · $2.74 cost · +228.5%
MOIC 3.28x
Resolved at $0
−$79.17
Polymarket
Ballon d’Or 2026 Winner — Lamine Yamal The market was wrong
LONG YES · settled Oct 26 at $0 — Harry Kane won the 2026 Ballon d’Or (Yamal finished 3rd) · 10.88 shares
−$4.51
$0.00 proceeds · $4.51 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Kalshi
Chicago high Oct 26 — 64–65°F
LONG NO · sold Oct 26 — stop-loss, thesis broken (KMDW printed above the thesis cap) · 7.69 contracts @ 65¢ · buy order 01a17616-7268-73fe-94bb-3b417489a944 · sell orders 01a1791c-4fc8-72df-86b9-d8ff37596c23, 01a1791d-1700-7bf7-8eaf-3d9a559d88f4
−$2.5387
$2.4598 proceeds · $4.9985 cost · −50.8%
MOIC 0.49x
Kalshi
LA high Oct 26 — 77–78°F
LONG NO · sold Oct 26 — stop-loss, thesis broken (KLAX printed 75.2°F, meeting the named disconfirmer) · 12.82 contracts @ 39¢ · buy order 01a17616-a148-7fcc-b98d-d1392df0d783 · sell orders 01a1796a-8350-7f5f-9c48-354d1958d18c, 01a1796a-e4f8-7179-a72e-bb4b23c801dd
−$2.6604
$2.3394 proceeds · $4.9998 cost · −53.2%
MOIC 0.47x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 25 — 81–82°F
LONG NO · closed by sale Oct 25 at 14¢ — stop-loss after thesis-check BROKEN (KMIA convection held the day max at 80.6°F, in-band in substance) · 8.33 shares · sell order DAJJ8DYG11MM · buy order DAHGA64G11N6
−$1.3028
$1.1662 proceeds · $2.4690 cost · −52.8%
MOIC 0.47x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 25 — 64–65°F
LONG NO · closed by sale Oct 25 at 15¢ limit (verified bid 16¢) — stop-loss after thesis-check BROKEN (KNYC printed the 61.0°F cool-track disconfirmer) · 8.61 shares · sell order DAMBHEEG11MM · buy order DAHGGSY011R3
−$2.2647
$1.3557 proceeds · $3.6204 cost · −62.6%
MOIC 0.37x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 23 — 59–60°F
LONG NO · closed by sale Oct 23 — stop-loss after KNYC printed exactly 59°F in-band · filled 8.77 shares @ 33¢, incl. fees
−$1.79
$1.23 proceeds · $3.02 cost · −59.3%
MOIC 0.41x
Kalshi
Miami rain Oct 23
LONG NO · settled Oct 23 at $0 — YES won (0.43 in at KMIA); thesis broke but the NO book was empty, so no exit was ever executable · 9.09 contracts @ ~39.7¢ avg fill · buy order 01a1693b-3ba0-76e8-83f6-3487830c576c
−$3.6060
$0.00 proceeds · $3.6060 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Polymarket
SF high Oct 23 — 69–70°F
LONG NO · Tier-2 consensus trial bet #2 · closed by sale Oct 23 — profit-erosion backstop at 61¢ · scratch-sized loss, −$0.02 after fees
−$0.02
$5.00 proceeds · $5.02 cost · −0.4%
MOIC 1.00x
Kalshi
LA high Oct 22 — 70–71°F
LONG NO · sold Oct 22 — stop-loss, thesis broken (KLAX printed well above the band) · 10.41 contracts @ 48¢ · buy order 01a16423-9158-758d-93ec-30e8c2c0c6de · sell order 01a164d5-68b0-7146-a0d6-522f5fe2966d
−$2.0002
$2.9973 proceeds · $4.9968 cost · −40.0%
MOIC 0.60x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 22 — 72–73°F
LONG NO · closed by sale at 24¢ — stop-loss after thesis-check BROKEN (KMDW 70.0°F at 12:00 CDT disconfirmer fired) · 9.09 shares @ 40¢ · sell order D8NMY79G11MQ
−$1.4544
$2.1816 proceeds · $3.6360 cost · −40.0%
MOIC 0.60x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 22 — 65–66°F
LONG NO · closed by sale at 30¢ — profit-erosion backstop (unconditional ≤25%-of-peak floor) · 8.77 shares @ 38¢ · sell order D8M3P1P011MV
−$0.7016
$2.6310 proceeds · $3.3326 cost · −21.1%
MOIC 0.79x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 21 — 72–73°F
LONG NO · closed by sale at 28¢ — stop-loss after thesis-check broken (KMDW ≥68°F by noon CDT) · buy 10.20 shares @ 49¢ · buy order D7YPB8TG10JV · sell order D81SAQ3010JE, initially partial then fully filled · API reports realized −$2.1399 on its all-in basis, with a −0.01-share dust residual
−$2.1420
$2.8560 proceeds · $4.9980 cost · −42.9%
MOIC 0.57x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 21 — 73–74°F
LONG NO · closed by sale at 33¢ — stop-loss after thesis-check broken (KLAX ≥72°F before rain arrived) · buy 8.92 shares @ 56¢ · buy order D7MBGF5010JK · sell order D815MW2G10JB · sell monitor reported ≈−$2.20 on the API all-in cost of $5.1440
−$2.0516
$2.9436 proceeds · $4.9952 cost · −41.1%
MOIC 0.59x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 21 — 75°F or above
LONG NO · opened and closed Oct 21 — resting buy filled @ 63¢ · 7.93 shares · buy order D7YR0B1G50JF · closed by sale at 63¢, profit-erosion backstop · sell order D815HN6010JV · breakeven scratch
$0.0000
$4.9959 proceeds · $4.9959 cost · 0.0%
MOIC 1.00x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 21 — 61–62°F
LONG NO · closed by sale at 46¢ — profit-erosion backstop (unconditional ≤25%-of-peak floor) · buy 10.86 shares @ 46¢ · buy order D7MBSCMG10JN · first 50¢ sell order D7W231BG10JF rejected with zero filled · replacement order D7WXZXDG50JB filled @ 46¢ · breakeven scratch · sell monitor reported −$0.14 on the API all-in cost of $5.135
$0.0000
$4.9956 proceeds · $4.9956 cost · 0.0%
MOIC 1.00x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 20 — 85–86°F
LONG NO · closed by sale at 36¢ limit — profit-erosion backstop (unconditional ≤25%-of-peak floor) · 11.11 shares · buy order D7A51BM010JN · sell order D7DHS32010JE
−$0.9999
$3.9996 proceeds · $4.9995 cost · −20.0%
MOIC 0.80x
Polymarket
Chicago low Oct 19 — 43–44°F
LONG NO · closed by sale at 32¢ — profit-erosion backstop · 7.57 shares · sell order D6HR103G10JF · buy order D6C2CMSG10JH
−$1.36
$2.42 proceeds · $3.79 cost · −36.0%
MOIC 0.64x
Kalshi
Phoenix high Oct 19 — 90–91°F
LONG NO · sold Oct 19 at 13¢ — stop-loss, thesis broken · 6.75 contracts @ 64¢ · buy order 01a15483-85a0-7afd-bafb-e8e104ed387d · sell order 01a155db-8808-7644-9b78-0309b39159e7
−$3.4425
$0.8775 proceeds · $4.3200 cost · −79.7%
MOIC 0.20x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 19 — 85–86°F
LONG NO · stop-loss sale Oct 19 at 16¢ (thesis broken) · 9.43 shares · sell order D6QGFCE010JF · buy order D6C2DYFG10JK
−$2.17
$1.51 proceeds · $3.68 cost · −59.0%
MOIC 0.41x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 19 — 67–68°F
LONG NO · stop-loss sale Oct 19 at 17¢ · 10 shares · sell order D6TR970G10JK · buy order D6C2F01G10JC
−$2.70
$1.70 proceeds · $4.40 cost · −61.4%
MOIC 0.39x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 18 — 86°F or above Resolved at $0 club
LONG NO · settled at $0 — KLAX day max 87.8°F landed in the 86+ band · 9.09 shares · bought at 55.8¢ avg
−$5.06
$0.00 proceeds · $5.06 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 18 — 56–57°F
LONG NO · settled at $0 — the settling book read KNYC 57, in-band · 8 shares · bought at 53.7¢ avg, all-in · Disputed: the sell monitor's station read a day max of 55.9°F; graded a loss in the panel record
−$4.33
$0.00 proceeds · $4.33 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Polymarket
Chicago high Oct 18 — 63–64°F Exited near $0
LONG NO · stop-loss sale Oct 18 at 4¢ (thesis broken — KMDW printed 64 in-band) · 9.09 shares · sell order D66EM61010JQ · bought at 55¢ · buy order D61JS93G10JE
−$4.64
$0.36 proceeds · $5.00 cost · −92.8%
MOIC 0.07x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 18 — 82–83°F
LONG NO · stop-loss sale Oct 18 at 24¢ (thesis broken — KMIA printed 82 in-band) · 7.93 shares · sell order D620ND8G30JQ · bought at 63¢ · buy order D61K3FKG10JF
−$3.09
$1.90 proceeds · $5.00 cost · −61.8%
MOIC 0.38x
Polymarket
NYC high Oct 17 — 61°F or below
LONG YES · stop-loss sale Oct 17 at 17¢ (thesis broken) · 5.88 shares · order D53CNHHG0ZSE
−$4.05
$1.00 proceeds · $5.05 cost · −80.2%
MOIC 0.20x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 17 — 92–93°F
LONG NO · profit-erosion sale Oct 17 at 39¢ · 7.69 shares · order D5F4GYEG10JQ
−$1.59
$3.00 proceeds · $4.59 cost · −34.6%
MOIC 0.65x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 16 — 90–91°F
LONG NO · stop-loss sale Oct 16 at 14¢ · 10 shares · sell order D4RVYH600ZS5 · bought Oct 15 under order D4D7X1A00ZS5
−$1.50
$1.40 proceeds · $2.90 cost · −51.7%
MOIC 0.48x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 15 — 90–91°F
LONG NO · stop-loss sale Oct 15 at 4¢ · 9.09 shares · order D44HFTX00ZRX
−$3.89
$0.36 proceeds · $4.25 cost · −91.5%
MOIC 0.09x
Polymarket
LA high Oct 12 68–69°F
LONG NO · auto-sold Oct 12, 3:03 PM PDT at 23¢ · 14.97 shares · order D2BPMMSPMZ7T filled · $0.18 commission
−$4.7809
$3.2631 net proceeds · $8.0440 cost · −59.4%
MOIC 0.41x
Polymarket
Miami high Oct 12 90–91°F
LONG NO · market settled YES at 99¢ · NO shares effectively worthless
−$1.5883
~$0.0357 salvage · $1.6240 cost · −97.8%
MOIC ~0.02x
Polymarket
Above 4.1% — lost
LONG NO · September Unemployment Rate
−$2.06
$0.00 proceeds · $2.06 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Polymarket
Above 480k — lost
LONG NO · Tesla Q3 Total Deliveries
−$2.02
$0.00 proceeds · $2.02 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Kalshi
LA high Oct 8 — 83°F or above
LONG NO · settled Oct 8 at $0 — market finalized YES, NO paid $0 · 7.50 contracts @ 38¢ · buy order 01a11c0a-c008-7d50-998c-604932074e7e
−$2.8500
$0.00 proceeds · $2.8500 cost · −100.0%
MOIC 0.00x
Still open — holding to resolution
10 markets · −$3.90 unrealized
Showing 1–5 of 10 positions
| Market | Platform | Position | Shares | Cost | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of October?Anthropic · aimrc-company1-2026-10-31-anthro | Polymarket | Long YES | $2.04 | $0.65 | −$1.39 | End of Oct | |
| US GDP Growth in Q3 2026?Above 2.5% · gdpc-us-saa-q3-2026-10-29-gt2pt5 | Polymarket | Long YES | $7.96 | $7.85 | −$0.11 | Oct 29 | |
| Which Companies Will Confirm an IPO in 2026?Anthropic · ipcc-2026ipos-anthropic | Polymarket | Long YES | $5.40 | $6.65 | +$1.25 | 2026 | |
| U.S Senate Midterm WinnerDemocratic Party · paccc-usse-midterms-2026-11-03-dem | Polymarket | Long NO | $0.54 | $0.73 | +$0.19 | Nov 3 | |
| Highest temperature in Los Angeles on October 27?76 to 77 · tc-temp-laxhigh-2026-10-27-gte76lt77f | Polymarket | Long NO | $4.64 | $4.44 | −$0.19 | Oct 27 | |
| Highest temperature in Chicago on October 27?70 to 71 · tc-temp-mdwhigh-2026-10-27-gte70lt71f | Polymarket | Long NO | $3.62 | $3.53 | −$0.09 | Oct 27 | |
| US Confirms That Aliens Exist?December 31, 2026 · usgcc-aliens-12-31-2026 | Polymarket | Long NO | $2.83 | $2.82 | −$0.01 | Dec 31 | |
| Miami high Oct 27 — 83–84°FKXHIGHMIA-26OCT27-B83.5The NO book is empty (no bids), so it can't be sold — it rides to settlement. KMIA's day max of 82.4°F is below the 83.5°F threshold, so the NO thesis is intact; valued at the $0.00 bid, not a realized loss. | Kalshi | Long NO | $3.10 | $0.00 | −$3.10 | Oct 27 · settles tonight | |
| Democrats win all four core Senate races (sweep)KXDEMCOREFOURSENATESWEEP-26NOV03 | Kalshi | Long NO | $7.90 | $7.30 | −$0.59 | Nov 3 | |
| Senate control — DemocratsCONTROLS-2026-D | Kalshi | Long YES | $3.00 | $3.14 | +$0.15 | Nov 3 | |
| Open-position totals | $41.02 | $37.12 | −$3.90 | All 10 positions · both platforms | |||
Page 1 of 2
Data source: Polymarket rows from the authenticated Polymarket US API; Kalshi rows from the Kalshi API, valued at the best bid for the held side. All 10 positions remain open (none expired); realized P&L is $0.00 for each.
Snapshot taken Oct 27, 2026 at 3:35 PM PDT. Position labels reflect ownership: “Long NO” means NO shares are held, not that NO is being shorted. Kalshi sizes are contracts; Polymarket sizes are shares.